December 2010
26 posts
2 tags
Unemployment: Time to Celebrate
New claims made a significant push below 400k today. Since I’ve been making a big deal about this level for over a year, I felt it appropriate to set aside time from my vacation to comment on this. This is a number worth celebrating. For how long, I could not say. My view is pessimistic to be sure. And there are other aspects of the labor market not worth celebrating. The unadjusted numbers...
2 tags
Unemployment: New Claims Flat
The revision to the unemployment data is larger than the weekly change. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report pegs the new claims number at 420k. Last week, it was 421k (before revision). The Bloomberg consensus range was 414k to 435k, so this data was largely expected. From the report:
In the week ending Dec. 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was...
Today was unusual →
This was one of the few days this month that the Fed isn’t pimping billions into the market. Pumping. I meant pumping.
Mortgage Rates pushing 5% →
A dancing silhouette has informed me that I should buy a house now before rates rise even higher.
In other news, it looks like November existing home sales will be down 30% from a year ago.
Money laundering scandal rocks Vatican Bank →
There’s a new scenario for which the pope is contemplating the ethics of condom usage.
GM Offers $60,000 Buyouts to 2,000 Skilled Workers... →
Ugh. This sort of offsets the good news about them hiring 1,000 engineers.
Pimco's Gross Buys Five of Firm's Muni Bond Funds →
Bill Gross, the co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., spent $4.4 million of his own money this month to purchase shares of five municipal-bond funds run by his firm after tax-exempt debt tumbled.
…
“Bill Gross’s leadership in being a buyer is notable as it reflects his optimism about a recovery in the underlying fundamentals of municipal bonds,” said...
Lol
correlationstonone:
The rejection of the tax deal appears primarily motivated by a desire for more giveaways. Particularly, Pelosi wants BABs extended so we continue to federally subsidize California.
Thanks for the monies!
XOXO, CA
2 tags
Unemployment: New Claims Back Down
I suggested tempering both celebration and mourning over the last two weeks’ reports due to a predictable dip/bump patten. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report gives us a nice drop to 421k. This isn’t as good as the dip two weeks ago (and the bump last week was revised up 2k). However, note that the 4-week moving average continued to fall, which helps smooth...
“$8 billion divided by 343 (the number of criminal prosecutions) only averages...”
– George Washington in Department of Justice “Crackdown” On Wall Street Is Just a P.R. Stunt Targeting Small-Time Crooks
Possible End Of BAB Program Raises Questions On... →
This once looked like a pretty sure thing. Now it looks like the Build America Bonds program won’t be extended. This, combined with the falloff of other federal aid, will put a lot of strain on California’s budget.
I guess some cans weren’t meant to be kicked forever.
U.S. States Face `Cliff' as Federal Stimulus... →
moorewr:
Bloomberg:
The report, which says states will get $37.9 billion less in stimulus money in fiscal 2012 compared with 2011, is the second in as many weeks to warn of renewed financial pressure on states as the funding winds down. Last week, Raymond Scheppach, executive director of the National Governors Association, said states may confront $175 billion in budget gaps through June 2013,...
Report: U.S. parents overconfident about kid's... →
Guess what I just learned by listening to Obama’s speech?
Actually, I think he was referencing this report, referenced in the USA today article (click on the report link for access to the free pdf download). From the executive summary:
So where does America stand relative to its position of five years ago when the Gathering Storm report was prepared? The unanimous view of the committee...
Pope Benedict Laments Pedophile `Cloud of Filth,'... →
There’s something a bit off about this headline.
And this is but one of the headlines I was going to share today while tumblr was down. Damn you, tumblr!
One of the others was about Dexter Season 6 getting the go-ahead.
The others were about the missing link, the cure for cancer, a linear factoring algorithm, GUT, and room-temperature superconductors. But “Cloud of Filth”...
“Haley Barbour is literally boss Hogg in a white suit. He’s a corrupt-esque...”
– Jasen Comstock
You’ve got to admit, Jasen has a way with prose. Tell us, Jasen. How do you really feel?
The low-snark version
I think I’ve mentioned California’s need for the Build America Bonds program a few times. I haven’t actually supported the position. This post is a nice illustration of how California disproportionately benefits from the BAB program.
California has other problems that we’ll need immediate help with. For example, we are borrowing quite a bit from the federal government for...
Build America Extension Added to Senate Tax-Cut... →
Woohoo! It looks like California has a chance at surviving another year. Thanks, rest of the US. We love you.
GM Confirms, Yes, We're Losing Money on Every Volt... →
Yes, this is the future of GM: lose money on each sale, but make it up with volume. And future bailouts.
The article is very defensive of this policy (“It’s called R&D, folks”). It fails to mention that the Nissan Leaf, AKA “the competition,” has a positive profit margin.
(via naked capitalism)
Debunking the Myth That Bigger Banks are More... →
I’ve seen multiple studies that confirm that big banks face diseconomies of scale. A literature search turns up zero empirical studies on the opposite side of the debate. The actual size where efficiency turns to inefficiency differs, but you can use the ballpark of $4 billion (the study I remember best had it there). I’m a little surprised that this myth persists (though it begs the...
2 tags
Unemployment: 9.8%
The unemployment rate grew to 9.8% as the economy added fewer jobs than anticipated. November’s Employment Situation Report tells us that only 39,000 non-farm payroll jobs were added last month. This is worse than the Bloomberg consensus range of 100k to 200k (with 168k as the consensus number) but more importantly, worse than the 125k Robert Reich says is needed to maintain the...
2 tags
Unemployment: New Claims Up Sharply
A bump in new unemployment claims should have been largely expected. The reports in shortened weeks that show dips tend to be followed by bumps up. This is particularly true of the week before Thanksgiving. I’m not actually sure of the mechanic. It’s not like there’s a decrease in layoffs the week before a shortened week. You might think that it is because the government takes a...
1 tag
November Auto Numbers
The November numbers have come in from the automakers (source, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9):
Ford up 24.3%
GM up 11.4%
Toyota down 3.3%
Honda up 21%
Nissan up 26.8%
Hyundai up 45%
Chrysler/Fiat up 17%
Subaru up 22%
Porsche up 49%
Kia up 48%
Volkswagen up 24.2%
Daimler up 10.3%
BMW up 27.1%
Overall, that was an SAAR of 12.26 million. That’s up from 10.86 million a year ago, though...
Fringe website releases documents detailing bank... →
Wow. People were expecting some bad information about BofA. Some of that is here, but there’s stuff about foreign banks, AIG, Goldman Sachs, and others as well.
I’m downloading this before a DDoS attack takes it down.
UPDATE: Bloomberg has already started analyzing the leaks here