March 2010
54 posts
Yay Census
I’m not a huge fan of The ADP National Employment Report (pdf here). It doesn’t provide much of a sneak peek on employment data. It excludes government jobs, so it’s not a very complete picture. It’s more of an alternative perspective. So take this with a grain of salt.
The release for March isn’t very positive:
Nonfarm private employment decreased 23,000 from...
1 tag
More Links
Nothing is really motivating me to write a full post. This is unlikely to change tomorrow, though I’ll at least reference the ADP employment report. Feel free to ask if there’s anything in particular you’d like an alternative viewpoint on. Instead of forced commentary, I’ll provide you with the following links.
Greek debt didn’t do so well today - Greece offered...
Health Care Bill Bait and Switch: Insurers Have... →
I’m sure this matter will eventually be settled in a court, but this is a rather interesting take on the new bill. The short version: You will have a legal requirement to buy health insurance, but the main technique insurers use to deny coverage will remain a legal option.
1 tag
Things Better Said Elsewhere
In the US, we apparently instituted capital controls when we passed health insurance reform. Yet another way that the “If you don’t like it here, leave” argument is followed by “but leave your money.”
In Europe, Greece managed to sell $6.7 billion debt. Paying 6% on maturities that Germany pays less than 3% on makes this success seem a little hollow. They still have...
3 tags
Bank Failure Friday
Only four banks were added to the FDIC Failed Bank List tonight:
Desert Hills Bank, Phoenix, AZ - Total deposits of $426.5 million and an estimated hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) of $106.7 million. “The FDIC and New York Community Bank entered into a loss-share transaction on $325.9 million of Desert Hills Bank’s assets.”
Unity National Bank, Cartersville, GA -...
CalPERS Investigation: Criminal Probe Targets... →
Just a reminder that we still have a pension crisis in front of us. We only need an estimated $2 trillion to fix it. That is, unless there’s another downturn in the market. Apparently pension funds have been shifting their portfolios towards risky assets as a means of getting better returns to make up for their shortfalls. I’m sure that will end well.
2 tags
Unemployment: New Claims Down
Slow and steady wins the race. That’s the hope with the new claims numbers for unemployment insurance. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has been released. New claims dropped to 442k. This is short of the 400k level we associate with sustainable jobs growth, but a noticeable improvement over last week’s 457k, which was revised down 1,000 to 456k. Note that...
New Home Sales at Record Low in February →
Another report points to a double dip in housing, this time for new home sales. Mortgage Applications are down.
The Fed, the administration, and various other economists have noted that a recovery in housing is key to a sustained economic recovery. The key to housing, however, doesn’t appear to be any single thing. Housing remains unaffordable (despite improvements around the country)....
Home Prices Continue Decline as Economist Sees... →
US house prices declined 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from December to January, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly house price index. The results come with a warning that the much-feared double-dip in housing prices may be already here.
January’s drop comes after a 2% decline in December, adjusted from an originally projected 1.6%.
Allow me to say that...
Frayed string for China's property balloon →
Andy Xie discusses the potential to delay the day of reckoning in the Chinese property bubble. This is the punchline:
China’s property market is a massive bubble. The stock of residential properties, developer inventories and land pledged to banks by local governments exceed by three times the nation’s gross domestic product. Rental yields in most cities fail to cover depreciation...
Health care reform and the Amish: What will it all... →
I’ll spare you reading the article:
While the religious conscience exemption clause in H.R. 3200 may protect most Amish individually, it probably won’t apply to Amish-owned businesses.
(via Marginal Revolution)
Congress Accidentally Releases Geithner's... →
This speech is a lot better than I expected. I spent the time reading it, hoping to tear it apart. Unfortunately, the best I can muster is “Geithner: Solving Yesterday’s Problems Tomorrow.” That’s not the whole story, though. The testimony covers most of the problems with the GSEs. But most of the necessary reforms will get nothing but lip service because they would have...
3 tags
Bank Failure Friday
And so it begins.
That sounds dramatic, right? Maybe not quite as good as “Banks failing all over the country,” but that just sounds a bit too dramatic. Seven banks were added to the FDIC Failed Bank List tonight:
State Bank of Aurora, Aurora, MN - Total deposits of $27.8 million and an estimated hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) of $4.2 million. “The FDIC and...
jeffmiller asked: The Dow is at 10,750. Where do you think it should be?
2 tags
Unemployment: New Claims Down Slightly
March is shaping up to have a more stable employment environment than February, but not as good as January (yet). That’s the safe conclusion to draw from this week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. New claims dropped to 457,000. Last week’s number was unrevised. That’s still more than 10,000 new unemployment claims compared to five weeks ago. 20,000 more than...
hilker asked: what's your absolute favorite wine of all time? do you like non-wines as well?
Zapatero’s Bid to Avoid Greek Fate Hobbled by... →
I’m not confident Spain will be the next EU country to have credit problems. However, Spain will hit the wall at some point. Spain’s unemployment rate is terrible, and the country is probably too big to bail out. Not only that, but the demographic breakdown of their unemployed makes them rather likely to experience some severe civil unrest.
jasencomstock asked: I have a strange question. Recently, Texas just changed some social studies/history standards in a negative way, in my opinion. This got me thinking about the USA being all crazy all the time and maybe not getting any better. What do you think would be the point at which you would stop investing (for the sake of your own future) in anything related to the health of the dollar and American...
ptbruiser asked: Do you want me to mail you "Anatomy of the State" back? I read and enjoyed it and shared it with another friend, but we're both finished with it now.
mills asked: How did you acquire your expertise, and is it for pleasure that you dispense it for free? Do you work or study in a field that affords too few opportunities for you to treat these subjects you follow? Or is this blog the result of your work, a space where you can share your trade?
Also, may I ask you for financial advice?
Also, may I ask you for financial advice?
Ask me anything →
I also get bored
3 tags
China Retaliates: Ministry Of Commerce Says US... →
I’d be negligent if I didn’t make some comment on this. First, you should probably be aware that Paul Krugman is gunning to have China labeled a “currency manipulator”. This was followed by support from 130 Congressmen.
Anyway, there is the small problem that China doesn’t particularly want to let their currency appreciate against the dollar. If China decided to...
Former Bank President Becomes First Charged with... →
Summary: The Park Avenue Bank of New York, NY failed on Friday. Turns out the bank president was an embezzler. One down, hundreds to go.
The Coolest Invention Ever: Smokeless Caffeine... →
My heart explodes with love/addiction.
3 tags
Proposed NY Law Would Ban Salt in Restaurant Food... →
robot-heart-politics:
I actually agree with some of this, which makes me kind of nervous. ;)
I gave Kellen this analogy once for why I oppose libertarianism. A bottle cap company makes millions of bottles every year. The bottle cap company finds out that one of the products they use to make their bottle caps is actually leeching poison into the beverages they go on. Should the company stop...
Proposed NY Law Would Ban Salt in Restaurant Food... →
sds:
robot-heart-politics:
sds:
I find it interesting that RHP’s lack of support for this law is based solely (at least in this post) on the fact that it’s impractical.
I agree it’s impractical, but my main problem is that the state has no business telling me what I can and cannot eat, nor what a restaurant can serve (beyond obviously poisonous or unsanitary foods).
Government: get your...
Will California Outlaw Coffee Stout with Bill AB... →
(via hilker, who asks, “What is wrong with you people!?!?!”)
I have no explanation. It may come as a surprise to nobody, but I don’t always see eye to eye with the California legislature.
I brew my own, though I’ve not yet attempted a stout. In fact, I sort of screwed up my last batch of porter (my friends drink it, but that only illustrates how cool my friends are).
Proposed NY Law Would Ban Salt in Restaurant Food... →
robot-heart-politics:
*facepalm*
Interesting. You support the soda tax because you think the government should enact policies to change people’s eating habits. What makes this case different?
I obviously agree that the salt ban is ridiculous. However, I think the soda tax is even more ridiculous, particularly because the government subsidizes the production of high fructose corn syrup...
NY Fed Under Geithner Implicated in Lehman... →
The release of a 2,000 some-odd page report on the Lehman bankruptcy is generating some very interesting discussion. See Calculated Risk’s take and this post at Zero Hedge for different viewpoints. If you’ve time (or limited interest) for only one, I’ve found the big link above (from naked capitalism) to be the most provocative.
3 tags
You Know Your Bank Sucks When...
… The FDIC closes it on a Thursday. LibertyPointe Bank of New York, NY just failed. The bank had $209.5 million in total deposits and will have an estimated hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund of $24.8 million. The FDIC entered into a loss-share agreement with Valley National Bank on $181.5 million of LibertyPointe Bank’s assets.
This is the first bank since WaMu to be closed on a...
2 tags
Unemployment: New Claims Down Slightly
We see some slight improvement in the weekly unemployment indicator. I would have liked to have seen a bigger move, as we have entered a period with no obvious short term trend. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has been released. New claims dropped to 462,000. Last week’s figure was revised down 1,000. The new claims number was inside the Bloomberg consensus...
The audacity of small numbers: 'The median wealth... →
(via master-of-none)
For those interested, you can download the report here, from the Insight Center for Community Economic Development Publications and Materials Page. The associated symposium page has other references.
Perhaps the most frightening thing about this result is that the data comes from 2007, when balance sheets were substantially better.
‘Cinderella’ Valley Vintners May Go Broke After... →
If you are a fan of Chilean wines (and who knows, you might be, give ‘em a try), you should probably stock up. I actually read about this earlier, but I went into hoarding mode and didn’t tell you about it until I had the chance to go buy some wine.
You must understand. We’re getting married at a winery. One of our best friends works at a different winery. I am a big fan of...
Hey cool kids, we're hip to your jive...
My fiancée had a research problem for her students. They had to ask a question with a quantitative response. Then they had to find the mean, median, and mode of the data. Us old fogies can’t decode one of the questions. What does it mean, “How many times have you gotten zapped in the past month?” Given the responses, we’re hoping it isn’t slang for getting high...
Obama Foreclosure-Prevention Plan Lagging, New... →
(via)
Only about a third of the homeowners who have successfully completed the trial period of the Obama administration’s mortgage modification program have been offered permanent relief, according to new federal data obtained by the Huffington Post.
The conversion rate — about 33 percent — is woefully short of what the Treasury Department had forecast. Treasury thought...
Making Sure Wrong Home Isn't Seized →
This article is rather timely (via).
Reports of lenders repossessing the wrong home are further tarnishing the banking industry’s image, already bruised by bailouts and bonuses.
The mix-ups have been perpetuated by the sheer number of foreclosures being processed today as well as the various layers of communication involved. Addresses and other information passed from one department...
Most Americans still unprepared for retirement →
The percentage of workers who said they have less than $10,000 in savings grew to 43% in 2010, from 39% in 2009, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute’s annual Retirement Confidence Survey. That excludes the value of primary homes and defined-benefit pension plans.
Workers who said they had less than $1,000 jumped to 27%, from 20% in 2009.
This is being reported...
Reality Check on “Produce The Note” Strategy →
squashed:
I think you’re more or less right on this one. I tend to use the “Produce the Note” defense as more of a “Go back, get your papers straightened out, then let me talk to the one guy who was competent enough to straighten out the paper.” In a lot of the cases, the whole mess could have been avoided if the banks or servicers had been on top of things from the beginning.
Often there...
Reality Check on “Produce The Note” Strategy →
Homeowners facing foreclosure are, understandably, looking for hope. News reports of homeowners successfully asserting the “produce the note” defense to stop foreclosure have sparked that hope in many. It seems only logical that a company commencing a foreclosure action should be required to demonstrate that it is the real party in interest before that action can move forward. But simply...
3 tags
Bank Failure Friday
It’s been a while since I’ve made one of these posts. I’ve been taking Fridays off. The FDIC has not. This Friday, four banks were added to the FDIC Failed Bank List:
Centennial Bank, Ogden, UT - $205.1 million in total deposits and an estimated hit to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) of $96.3 million. This is a true closing, with the FDIC authorizing a payout of insured...
2 tags
Unemployment: 9.7%
The unemployment rate held steady in February’s Employment Situation Report. On a seasonally adjusted basis, 36,000 jobs were lost. On an unadjusted basis, 473,000 jobs were added. The Bloomberg consensus range for the adjusted number was quite large, ranging from -150,000 to 30,000. From the report:
Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (-36,000) in February, and the...
Iced Trenta coffee? Starbucks tries bigger drinks →
31 ounce iced beverage to compete with Dunkin’ Donuts and McDonald’s? This is why we can’t have nice things.
2 tags
Unemployment: New Claims Down
This was a bit of critical news that worked out as needed. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has been released. Last week I stated that we would need one more bad data point before admitting that another trend up in new claims was happening. This was largely because of the weather’s unknown impact on the underlying trend. This week rejects the establishment of an uptrend....
1 tag
The "Meh" Indicators
Various economic reports were released today. They all indicated a fairly slow recovery.
The first was the ADP employment report. It roughly correlates with the monthly employment situation report, except that it excludes government jobs. It came in “meh” with only -20,000 jobs. There was a brief weather disclaimer:
Two large blizzards smothered parts of the east coast during the...