The BEA released the official GDP report for Q1 2009. GDP was down an annualized 6.1%, and there was a small downward revision to Q4 2008. This was toward the low end of the Bloomberg consensus range (-6.2 % to -3.5 %). Take into account that this is the preliminary report, and subject to massive revision (Q4 2008 went from -3.8 to -6.3). That said, I don’t expect much of a revision. From the report:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP decreased 6.3 percent.

…

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, private inventory investment, equipment and software, nonresidential structures, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a positive contribution from personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The slightly smaller decrease in real GDP in the first quarter than in the fourth reflected an upturn in PCE for durable and nondurable goods and a larger decrease in imports that were mostly offset by larger decreases in private inventory investment and in nonresidential structures and a downturn in federal government spending.

Motor vehicle output subtracted 1.36 percentage points from the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 2.01 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change. Final sales of computers added 0.05 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.02 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change.

Last quarter, when the revised GDP report came out, I initially pointed at the decline in inventory as a possible silver lining, but had to backtrack when the ISM data came out. I’m going to commit the same mistake this time: this is a possible silver lining. It means that businesses aren’t buying stuff that people aren’t buying. However, for it to be a good thing, inventories must decline faster than sales (and PCE increased, so it’s possible). An uptick in inventory investment will be a boost to GDP as we climb out of this hole.