Crazy Nut Job
Things That Are Inflationary

If you want to look for inflationary actions, take a look at the Telegraph article US bonds sale faces market resistance (via Naked Capitalism):

The US Treasury is selling $40bn of two-year notes on Tuesday, $35bn of five-year bonds on Wednesday, and $25bn of seven-year debt on Thursday. While the US has not yet suffered the indignity of a failed auction – unlike Britain and Germany – traders are watching closely to see what share is being purchased by US government itself in pure “monetisation” of the deficit.

When the Fed purchases bonds, it reduces the supply of bonds. That should drive prices up and yields down. However, in doing so, the Fed creates new money out of thin air, and is inflationary. This increases the supply of money. Unlike those excess reserves I just mentioned, this money is in the real economy, not just sitting on some spreadsheet. The combination of issuing new debt and having the fed buy it with new money, “monetisation,” is the printing of money to pay off debts that those in the hyper-inflation camp are worried about.

If you want an explanation of why inflating our way out of debt might not be a good idea, read this excellent post at Naked Capitalism.

FYI, I still believe we are experiencing deflation. That is, I think the effective money supply is shrinking. I’ll provide a revised deflation thesis at some point. Until then, the quick explanation is this: a lot of things were being used as money (collateral for zero-reserve loans used to purchase assets) that are no longer being used as money or have had their collateral value reduced so that their contribution to the effective money supply has been reduced.

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