Crazy Nut Job

This is excellently written. It provides good contrast to my own opinions on things. In fact, it offers a good couple sentences as to why I disagree:

The bottom line is that the Fed is in a very difficult position. Its room to maneuver is either small or non-existent and the markets understand this. That is why there is a sharp divergence between those worried about price inflation and those fearing a lengthy depression.

Actually, I think that may be insufficient. This is probably the part I disagree with:

Second, massive monetary stimulus is good for asset prices in the near term (e.g. stocks, bonds, houses, commodities) in a world of very weak price inflation and a soft economy. That is true as long as the economy does not fall apart again, which is very unlikely given all the stimulus present and more to come if needed. Therefore, investors who can afford a little risk should own some assets that will ultimately be beneficiaries of the wall of new money being created and thrown at the economy.

I think that a future breakdown is highly likely. Such a breakdown will likely happen quickly, and further stimulus will only be made in response. Such an event will come as a surprise almost by necessity. At that point, you may hear me singing the praise of such stimulus, as investments made after a true bottom are likely to be much more successful than investments made to prevent such a dip in the first place. No. On second thought, you’ll still hear me complain.

The authors believes that weakness of the dollar is the risk to their thesis, while I believe that the deflationary debt unwind is simply larger than the current inflation attempts, probably by at least an order of magnitude. You think there might be political resistance to another trillion dollar bank bailout? Imagine trying to pass a ten trillion dollar bailout. $13 trillion of housing wealth has disappeared from the US, and the derivatives market is still more than an order of magnitude larger. Each of the top four banks in the US has more derivative exposure than the global cumulative GDP. Money and money-like assets can evaporate rather quickly.

Still, with a fiat currency and enough political willpower, inflation can always be created.

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