How are things going in China? As usual, it’s hard to tell. Here’s a variety of thoughts on the subject, all from today (and the first three all from Bloomberg):
China’s doing quite well — China’s Economy Grows 8.9%, Fastest Pace in a Year
China’s doing so well, it’s helping out Japan — Japan Exports Fall at Slower Pace on Chinese Stimulus
But, it might be a bubble and we’re all screwed — China’s ‘Growth on Steroids’ Risks Next Slowdown. The link for this was actually titled “China’s `Growth on Steroids’ Risks Next Slowdown as Lending Binge Subsides,” implying that we’ve already started the turn.
No, really, even China is warning about bubbles — Top China banker warns on asset bubbles. This is actually a FT headline, but the Calculated Risk post throws in a WSJ link as well, so it’s sort of a bonus.
If we permit ourselves to look back as far as yesterday, there were already predictions of a growth slowdown in Mid-2010. The choice bit:
The “investment share of the Chinese GDP is now a number north of 45 percent,” Roach said. “No country has ever experienced a number that large and gotten away with it for long.”
It could be a bubble. I remain convinced that the global recovery is quite fragile.
