The manufacturing report was a little bullish, but the November 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business was bearish. The index came in at 48.7, indicating contraction. I should mention that I don’t put too much emphasis on this report, but it is worth a glance. From the employment section of the report:

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in November for the 22nd time in the last 23 months. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for November registered 41.6 percent. This reflects an increase of 0.5 percentage point when compared to the 41.1 percent registered in October. Three industries reported increased employment, 11 industries reported decreased employment, and four industries reported unchanged employment compared to October. Comments from respondents include: “Permanent and seasonal layoffs” and “Some reduction in workforce due to slow second- and third-quarter sales.”

The industries reporting an increase in employment in November are: Other Services; Retail Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in November — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Information; and Mining.

Does this portend a double dip? Probably not (though I still believe the risk is high). Non-manufacturing employment is contracting at a decreasing rate, but new orders are growing (also at a decreasing rate). New export orders are growing at a faster rate.

Of note is the Public Administration comment:

No one trusts that the recovery is real. Seems everything and everyone is in a holding pattern.

That’s not very optimistic.