Click for the optimists’ perspective. If you want another way to look at the same data:
There was no volume on the stock market today. In a thinly traded market, prices can move either way quickly.
Bonds are dropping because the last 30 year auction went poorly. That spread to the 10 year. Investors do not trust the dollar over the long run.
The dollar is rallying because in the short run, the dollar carry trade is extremely crowded.
The retail sales data (mentioned in the linked article) was positive, but when retail sales are up 1.3% (1.9% YoY) and gasoline sales are up 6%, I’m not sure how optimistic I should be. Clothing sales were down, which means that many children are not getting socks for Christmas. I interpret that as positive news (not really, my future mother in law owns a specialty women’s clothing store. Times are tough).
If you do want a reason to be optimistic, having the dollar rise without having stocks collapse is a huge win for team bull. If stocks can continue to rise with the dollar, things are more robust than I believed.
