This was a “real-time alert” from CNBC’s iPhone app this morning, except they added the word “unexpectedly.” And while the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate came in below expectations (309k vs a Bloomberg consensus range of 345k to 380k), I have some problems with the label. Also, CR has some pretty graphs. Take that CNBC!

The local news station did a report on new home construction in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Santa Barbara moved from an average of roughly 1000 new homes a year to around 250. This is happening everywhere.

Several months ago, the new homebuyer tax credit was set to expire. This caused a lot of people to move their purchases forward. When the tax credit was extended, however, its effectiveness was automatically reduced. The demand had been moved forward.

How many new homes would you expect to sell if both supply and demand were dropping?

February is going to have the added bonus of having the storm that shut down the eastern seaboard delaying the plans of some would-be homebuyers. And sometime soon the Fed will stop their MBS purchases, which will likely cause mortgage rates to rise.