Crazy Nut Job
Predictions for September 15-19

So there’s a good chance that Lehman is going to declare bankruptcy tonight. The futures markets are predicting a slide in the DOW of about 2%. AIG needs to raise some serious cash soon. And WaMu is actually a zombie, looking for brains to eat. What does that mean?

  1. Expect an announcement from Christopher Cox over at the SEC. Further expect that it will be limiting shorts in some way.
  2. Expect an announcement from the Fed (or Treasury) that helps get around Paulson’s “adamant” stance against the use of taxpayer money. It may be as simple as a lending facility (crap for treasuries or crap for cash), or something more creative.
  3. Expect AIG to do something to stall. The restructuring announcement from them that is expected by others shouldn’t be their only announcement this week.

The objective for any governing body is to stall for time in this crisis. Assume that all actions will be made for that objective.

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