Crazy Nut Job
Extreme Pessimism

I may finally get my rally. I’ve been trying to read articles online to gauge fear. I think that we may be in a period of extreme pessimism. I said that the lack of a rally following the housing announcement was an indicator that there wasn’t enough pessimism. I may have been wrong. The news may have been ignored because people are too pessimistic. That’s the vibe I’ve had from what I’ve been reading. If there’s a rally tomorrow, it may last more than a couple days. It may last a week or even a month. So, while I don’t think the market is done barfing, we may get a sustained rally. That means that I will be careful to not buy too many puts early on. In fact, I may buy some short term calls, temporarily reversing my position.

On the other hand, the short ban ends tonight. Tomorrow should be interesting.

UPDATE

I think I just argued myself into setting up some straddles or strangles. Maybe it’s time to sit down with a calculator and figure out what the profit points are for those strategies.

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