Remember Henry Higgins’ words of linguistic wisdom: The rain in Spain stays mainly with 20% of the population. Three key things from the article.

Deputy Finance Minister Jose Manuel Campa said the unemployment rate would not affect Spain’s budget-deficit forecasts, and the government was sticking to a forecast for an average jobless rate of 19 percent this year. Finance Minister Elena Salgado said the rate would fall in “the coming quarters” and the number of unemployed, at 4.6 million in the first quarter, would not reach 5 million.

A forecast of 19% unemployment isn’t something to be proud of. But there’s a darker secret, which was once reported on. The immigrant population in Spain was rendered almost entirely unemployed in the first wave of this crisis. I don’t see any news on this subject any more. I speculate that the problem hasn’t gone away, it’s just been swept under the rug.

At 11.2 percent of gross domestic product, Spain’s budget shortfall was the third-biggest in the euro area last year, trailing only Greece and Ireland. S&P said it expects the Spanish deficit to stay above 5 percent in 2013, the year the government has pledged to cut it to the EU’s 3 percent limit.

Cuts in government spending will be almost as unpopular as in Greece.

S&P expects Spain’s economy to grow an average of 0.7 percent a year through 2016, and sees the jobless rate reaching 21 percent this year. The government forecasts 1.8 percent expansion next year, accelerating to 3.1 percent in 2013.

And this is why Portugal, not Spain, is expected to be next to hit crisis mode. Since 2002, Portugal has lagged the rest of the EU in economic growth. Spain grew. It had a bubble, in fact. It’s growing again. It’s growth is probably not sufficient to avoid an eventual crisis, but it’s not falling to pieces right now.

High unemployment will bring unique problems to Spain. If things degrade in the EU, Spain could be brought into real crisis. Don’t get me wrong, 20% unemployment is a crisis, but it’s not a “hey, the wings just fell off the plane” crisis.