Word is that we will find out the extent of the Greek bailout and austerity measures this weekend. Since it’s fun to beat a dead horse (living horses kick back), I thought I’d make a list of the specific things I’m looking for.

First, the bailout:

1. Actual amount initially approved - Although everyone is still tossing around this €120 billion number, it’s likely that the actual amount approved will be far smaller. Expect language describing a package of €120 billion, with €55 billion in the first year, and the rest upon subsequent EU meetings / approval votes. In other words, expect them to talk big, but actually do less.

2. Seniority of position - I’ve seen statements indicating that the bailout funds would be junior to existing bondholders. In other words, this isn’t a bailout of Greece, it’s a bailout of banks holding Greek debt. I suppose the Germans that oppose the bailout should feel better knowing that they are actually bailing out Deutsche Bank, not the Greeks. If it is the case that the positions are junior to existing debt, kiss the money goodbye.

3. Interest rate - The Germans have to borrow at 1.97% to fund their portion of a 5 year loan (3.02% if it’s a 10 year loan). Particularly if the loan lacks seniority, it should have some risk premium associated with it.

4. The follow up - What criteria will actually be used for second and third year funding? What will trigger release of the funds? Will the interest rate be the same? What if German bund yields rise? Will they have to go through another round of negotiations? Kicking the can down the road for a year is all well and good, but everyone wants to know what the follow up will be.

5. Plan B - What happens if everything falls apart in Portugal? Spain? Italy?

Then, the austerity plan:

1. Bonus checks - The FT reported that the austerity plan would involve Greeks in the public sector losing paychecks numbers 13 and 14 (Christmas and Easter bonuses). Let’s not kid ourselves. People manage to find a way to live paycheck to paycheck everywhere in the world. A 14% pay cut will have consequences. Expect riots.

2. Cutting obsolete jobs - The FT reports that several government jobs were maintained after the various departments had no reason to exist. When these departments are finally closed, expect riots.

3. VAT increases - The Greeks have a 3-tiered VAT tax (yes, I also learned this from the same FT article. I feel bad for losing that link.). The Greeks are going to raise the tax, which will have a measurable impact on prices. When that happens, expect riots.

4. Retirement - The average age of retirement in Greece is roughly 10 years earlier than in Germany. The potential benefits are also much higher as a portion of salary (though the actual benefits end up being roughly the same as in Germany). Expect this to be addressed, but expect riots when it happens.

5. Tax enforcement - Only suckers actually pay property and income taxes in Greece. In an attempt to crack down on this, Athens banned cash transactions larger than $1500 (it could have been €1500, but I’m too lazy to fact check myself). No checks, either. It must be on a bank card. Greece has tried to stem the flow of funds out of Greek banks. In fact, they strongly encouraged Greeks to move their money from foreign banks into Greek banks to avoid certain taxes. This didn’t work. The run on Greek banks has accelerated during this crisis. That has made accounting for tax purposes more difficult. Expect some sort of further crackdown. Also, riots.

After the bailout and austerity measures are in place, I fully expect Greece to try to get out of some of their existing obligations. I still think this will be a voluntary restructuring program. I expect some delay between the bailout and the program’s announcement.