jakke makes an astute observation. I agree. With the exception of the 1998 Russian currency crisis, it seems that every crisis, foreign or domestic, causes a flight to treasuries. The 10 year yield has benefited. The recent crumbling of Europe has provided support for the idea that this tradition has not yet ended. This tradition could continue for quite some time. Indeed, Japan demonstrates how long such a silly tradition can last. But it must end at some point.

There’s a nice, almost linear trend line on the top of the 10 year yield. It has lasted 30 years. Eventually, however, that trend line crosses zero. For that reason, the trend must be violated.

My concern is that when the time does come for the bull market in treasuries to end, it ends quickly and violently. This seems to be the story at the end of every bull market, particularly the big ones. As a consequence, it at least merits discussion.