Crazy Nut Job
Philly Fed Index Bad

From the Philadelphia Fed November 2008 Business Outlook Survey:

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from -37.5 in October to -39.3 this month. This index, which fell a dramatic 41 points last month, is now at its lowest level since October 1990. Evidence of weakness was also seen in the other broad indicators this month. Demand for manufactured goods, as represented by the survey’s new orders index, decreased one point, to a reading of -31.4. The survey’s shipments index held steady at -18.8; this follows a decrease of 21 points last month. Indexes for unfilled orders and delivery times remained significantly negative and were little changed from October.

The current employment index fell notably this month, declining seven points, to -25.2. The percentage of firms reporting a decrease in employment (38 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting an increase (13 percent). The average workweek index fell one point, and firms reporting shorter work hours outnumbered those reporting longer hours by 3 to 1.

It goes on, but -39.3 is bad. Still, is anyone surprised?

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