We’ve been riding a cycle of gradual decreases in new unemployment claims followed by surges that reset our progress. Now it’s not even clear that we’re gradually decreasing. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has been released. New claims came in at 456k. Unfortunately, last week’s number was revised up 6k, flipping the data from gain to decline. I’m going to split the difference and call it flat. New claims were inside the Bloomberg consensus range of 440k to 465k. From the report:

In the week ending June 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 456,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 459,000. The 4-week moving average was 463,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 460,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending May 29, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week’s revised rate of 3.7 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 29 was 4,462,000, a decrease of 255,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,717,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,617,500, a decrease of 49,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,666,750.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the stability of our labor market hasn’t shown real improvement all year. Fortunately, for those concerned with actual people holding jobs, the seasonal component of unemployment is large:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 392,842 in the week ending June 5, a decrease of 22,287 from the previous week. There were 581,092 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent during the week ending May 29, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,176,069, a decrease of 201,376 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.6 percent and the volume was 6,144,006.

Note that last month’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (released Tuesday) showed no change in the hiring or separation rates. It’s a little depressing to think that outside of the census numbers, a decrease in the unemployment rate has more to do with people giving up looking for work than people getting new jobs.

The good / bad lists repeat the story of sideways movement (the unadjusted numbers showed a minor increase last week):

The good list (-1000 or more): WI, TX

The bad list (+1000 or more): GA, AZ, CA, FL

FL (the worst) was +3,460 vs WI (the best) at -1,628. No sector lead the way this time. The big four (Service, Trade, Manufacturing, and Construction) were present in both lists.

In other news, the latest unemployment benefits extension is being debated in the Senate. This passed in the House before congress went on vacation. As a reminder, this is not the Tier V program providing benefits in excess of 99 weeks. This is funding for the current program for more recently unemployed. A House subcommittee begins hearings today on Tier V benefits.

This report was slightly disappointing. The cycle of gradual declines and upward surges requires that we at least see the gradual declines. Upward revisions don’t help.