The change in ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index crept closer to levels they claim reliably predicts a recession. The growth reading moved from -7.6 on the June 25 reading to -8.3 on the July 2 reading (released today).
You can tell I’m bored / procrastinating because I am updating graphs for things I don’t have a lot of faith in to begin with. On the plus side, since ECRI claims that this level indicates roughly a 90% chance of a recession, it supports my general thesis (Thesis: We are screwed). Also on the plus side: graphs are pretty. On the minus side: I’m supposed to be writing my dissertation. Do not tell my advisor.
