Double Dip?
The change in ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index has just passed the level they claim has reliably predicted recessions. The growth reading moved from -9.8 on the July 9 reading to -10.5 on the July 16 reading (released today).
Now that we’ve crossed the threshold, it is worth pointing something out: ECRI will sit on this data before they call a recession. They claim to have a reliable indicator, but are afraid of being wrong. Better late than wrong. The official recession labeler, the NBER, still hasn’t called an end to the last recession. If we do double dip, we may be out of the second recession before the NBER decides when one recession ended and the next began (if they even choose to distinguish between the two).
