Today’s Unemployment Insurance claims report did not disappoint. From the AP story via Yahoo Finance New jobless claims fall; March housing starts drop:
New jobless claims fell more than expected for the second straight week, but the number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment insurance benefits rose above 6 million for the first time.
Analysts expect the labor market to remain weak for the most of this year, as many employers are reluctant to hire until an economic recovery is well under way. And fresh housing data show the slump in that market, a major factor in triggering the recession, is not yet over.
The Labor Department said Thursday that its tally of initial unemployment claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 610,000 from a revised 663,000 the previous week. That was significantly below analysts’ expectations of 655,000 and the lowest level since late January. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out volatility, fell 8,500 to 651,000.
The unadjusted data is showing better improvement. From the actual report:
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 607,971 in the week ending April 11, a decrease of 18,892 from the previous week. There were 370,949 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent during the week ending April 4, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 6,305,445, a decrease of 146,611 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.3 percent and the volume was 3,088,902.
While these numbers are still terrible, it’s a noticeable improvement.
The good/bad lists exhibit their typical volatility:
The good list (-1000 or more): CA, OH, AL, FL, WI
The bad list (+1000 or more): MN, TN, WA, CO, AZ, IL, LA, AR, GA, NC, PA, NJ, TX, MO, MI
MI (the worst) was +5,408 vs CA (the best) at -4,708.
There’s one caveat in the data. California had one less day from the week in the unadjusted data (due to holiday). That has a fairly significant impact on the data. I’ll be surprised if CA is on the good list again next week. This didn’t impact the adjusted data.