At least the US isn’t the UK. They’ve had trouble with gilt auctions in the recent past, and have a lot of debt left to be financed. Bloomberg reports Gilt ‘Indigestion’ Looms as U.K. Prepares Record Bond Sales:
The U.K.’s plan to sell a record 220 billion pounds ($318 billion) of gilts this year to revive the economy may cause investor “indigestion,” according to some of Britain’s biggest bond traders.
The amount, 50 percent more than the 146.4 billion pounds sold in the fiscal year that ended March 31, may be too much for the market to absorb, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. The issuance plan, announced by the London-based Debt Management Office yesterday following the government’s budget report, is a “surprise,” according to Barclays Capital.
“The scope for bouts of indigestion going forward is high,” Richard McGuire, a senior fixed-income strategist in London at RBC Capital Markets, said in an e-mailed report. “In terms of the market’s ability to absorb this supply, the key is whether the budget presents a credible road map toward fiscal sustainability and here we would argue it is lacking.”
Prime Minister Gordon Brown is betting the bond sales will help to haul the nation out of the worst recession since World War II and revive the government’s prospects of winning a general election next year. Gilts fell following yesterday’s announcement, with the yield on the 10-year note rising 14 basis points to 3.44 percent in London.
The unprecedented sale plan raises the risk that bond auctions will fail, former U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont said in a Bloomberg Television interview this week. The debt office couldn’t find enough buyers at a sale of 40-year bonds on March 26, the first time since 2002 that demand fell short.
This is not going to play out well. The only feasible thing will be to cut expenses. The new UK budget will likely soak the rich, a strategy that will not be without consequence (though I’m curious what those consequences will be).
I previously mentioned my own concern about the ability of the US to continue to sell our debt in the long run. Yet, even with today’s headline of U.S. 10-Year Yield Touches Highest Since Fed Announced Buyback, I believe we’ve still got some wiggle room. There are many canaries that the US can use in this coal mine.