The unemployment rate dropped to 9.1% according to the July Employment Situation Report. The headline jobs number was +117,000 vs a Bloomberg consensus range of 25,000 to 125,000. Without the seasonal adjustment, things look substantially worse. 1.32 million people lost their jobs in the month of July. These job numbers are highly focused into a single industry that undergoes a rather pronounced phase transition between June and July: public schools.

The largest seasonal factor was government, which tends to shed only slightly fewer than the 1.22 million jobs it shed in July. This translated to only -37k after the seasonal adjustment. But by far the greatest share of these jobs are in the local government sector, in education.

The biggest gains on a seasonally adjusted basis were made in Education and health services (+38k). This is followed by Professional and business services (+34k). The biggest loser was Government (-37k), which was followed by Financial activities (-4k).

Table A15 provides alternative measures of labor underutilization. U-6, the broadest measure (frequently called the “real” unemployment rate), dropped from 16.2% to 16.1% (unadjusted it increased from 16.3% to 16.5%, though this also included a revision from 16.4%).

For those interested in the Birth/Death model, it subtracted 18k jobs to the unadjusted number. Once again, the seasonal adjustment factor is on total jobs.

This was somewhere between a good and mediocre report, depending on who’s estimates for sustainable employment rate growth you use. As a reminder, depending on who you listen to, we need between 100k and 175k jobs just to maintain the unemployment rate with our current demographics at a constant participation rate.

Crossing below the 400k new claims barrier is something worth celebrating. We celebrated. The celebration ends. Today’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report gave us a headline number of 400k. Last week’s number was revised up 3k to 401k. From the report:

In the week ending July 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 400,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 401,000. The 4-week moving average was 407,750, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 414,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending July 23, unchanged from the prior week’s revised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 23 was 3,730,000, an increase of 10,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,720,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,729,750, an increase of 4,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,725,250.

Remember that the current seasonal adjustments are quite sensitive to the exact weeks of manufacturing industry retooling. For that reason it is worth looking at the smoothed data (the 4-week adjusted moving average above), and the unadjusted data. The unadjusted numbers show substantial improvement:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 339,348 in the week ending July 30, a decrease of 29,939 from the previous week. There were 402,140 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent during the week ending July 23, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,663,134, a decrease of 89,947 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.5 percent and the volume was 4,438,886.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 16 was 7,570,439, a decrease of 75,192 from the previous week.

In other news, other economic indicators have shown slowdown starting in April/May (starting with softer petroleum consumption). The ISM numbers for July crossed below the points associated with stronger employment growth (I generally suggest pretending the non-manufacturing numbers have huge error bars, though). Expectations for tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report are soft (but positive).

This was a bad report. Also significant is the fact that we just saw one of our two good reports revised back into bad territory. Aside from the return to school (which won’t help headline numbers due to the strong seasonal factor), there’s not much to look forward to on the unemployment front. The European liquidity crisis seems to be starting to impact foreign demand. I have some short-term hope, but I can’t provide a good justification other than looking at the chart of the new claims 4-week moving average (the trend change away from good has not been confirmed).

A toast to small victories, easily celebrated. Today’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report greeted us with a headline number of 398k. Last week’s number was revised up 4k. Compare this to the Bloomberg consensus range of 405k to 436k and you can find multiple reasons to celebrate. No special factors were cited in today’s report. Speaking of which:

In the week ending July 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 398,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 422,000. The 4-week moving average was 413,750, a decrease of 8,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 422,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending July 16, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the prior week’s revised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 16 was 3,703,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,720,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,721,000, a decrease of 5,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,726,250.

There is some uncertainty in the adjustment due to the slight differences in the auto industry retooling periods from one year to the next (meaning there’s a potential for a slightly worse headline number next week if the offset came too soon). If the trend numbers look good to you, then you’ll have a bit of appreciation for the numbers that correspond to actual people. Quite a swing here:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 366,578 in the week ending July 23, a decrease of 103,503 from the previous week. There were 413,679 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent during the week ending July 16, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,735,896, a decrease of 47,420 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.6 percent and the volume was 4,554,316.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 9 was 7,645,601, an increase of 320,152 from the previous week.

This was a good report. Lower volatility in the labor market is an indicator of strength, even if it proves to be temporary. Other growth indicators aren’t looking too good, so temporary may be the best we can hope for. The GDP revision tomorrow was either leaked or I’ve received some draft emails that shouldn’t have been sent out. If the former, we’re expecting a 10 basis point boost to the prior estimate (1.8% to 1.9%, hitting expectations). If the latter, we’re quite confused. Without a tremendous upside surprise, things are too sluggish to hope for much in the immediate future for the labor market.

A little discouraging information from the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report: new claims increased to 418k (last week’s number was revised up 3k). This was toward the middle of the Bloomberg consensus range of 385k to 430k. It’s still rather unfortunate that we can’t seem to bust through that 400k barrier again. The report makes note of the special circumstance that 1,750 come from Minnesota’s government shutdown. From the report:

In the week ending July 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 418,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 408,000. The 4-week moving average was 421,250, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 424,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending July 9, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 9 was 3,698,000, a decrease of 50,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,748,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,720,500, a decrease of 4,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,724,500.

While the trend data moved in the wrong direction, the data corresponding to actual people moved in the right direction:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 464,865 in the week ending July 16, a decrease of 9,022 from the previous week. There were 502,065 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent during the week ending July 9, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,761,025, an increase of 226,332 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.6 percent and the volume was 4,562,782.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 2 was 7,325,198, a decrease of 159,696 from the previous week.

In other news, this is the first time since the statistic has been tracked that those unemployed for 99 weeks or longer has been over 2 million. That’s a depressing thought for you.

This was a bad report (as are all reports above 400k), but the moving average is still falling from the nasty spike in June. It’s still plausible that better news is in front of us. Unfortunately, a gradual decrease followed by sharp spike as been a common pattern over the last couple years, and there are certainly risks in front of us that could take us that way as well.

Close. Very close. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is about as close to the threshold as we can get. New unemployment claims came in at 405k. That’s a drop of 22k from last week’s revised number. Last week’s number was revised up 9k, but remember that there were several estimates that guaranteed a bit of uncertainty in the data. The Bloomberg consensus headline number was 405k (on a rather narrow range of 395k to 415k), so this definitely hit expectations. From the report:

In the week ending July 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 405,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 427,000. The 4-week moving average was 423,250, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 427,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending July 2, unchanged from the prior week’s revised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 2 was 3,727,000, an increase of 15,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,712,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,719,250, a increase of 6,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,713,000.

There are still about 11,500 claims coming from the Minnesota government shutdown in this report, so the labor market at large is actually a bit better than even the headline number might indicate. And lest we forget the unadjusted numbers that correspond to actual human beings, things aren’t really that great. There’s a seasonal retooling in autos and general manufacturing that makes much better headline/trend numbers than humans-getting-the-axe numbers:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 470,671 in the week ending July 9, an increase of 45,031 from the previous week. There were 515,991 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.8 percent during the week ending July 2, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,514,148, a decrease of 41,683 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.5 percent and the volume was 4,384,591.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending June 25 was 7,484,894, an increase of 25,333 from the previous week.

In other news, I was quite busy this week, and didn’t find anything worth linking to in my hasty Google search. No other employment news.

This was a bad report, but as good as a bad report gets. However, there are a few large factors that seem to be subsiding / past that contributed to the recent high levels. We may be getting good news in the near future.